The Real JNLR Results

[Billy]

Whilst every radio station in the country is celebrating their success in the recent JNLR listership figures, one should be careful what they believe. Every station puts their own spin on the figures and most can certainly find some category that will show them in a positive light. However, the real truth of the matter is worrying to those of us in the industry.

If we go back five years to the summer of 1997 and take a look at the market share figures released for that year we can see that local radio had made it’s mark in the seven to eight years since launch. Stations like Highland Radio in Donegal had recorded a figure of 78% market share within their franchise area. Likewise, impressive figures for WLR with 62%, Mid West Radio and South East Radio at 57% each and Clare FM at 53%.

The figures released this week are a far cry from the “Glory Days” of the late seventies. Highland Radio down to 66% - that’s over 15% of their audience GONE in just five years!!! And if you think that’s bad take a look at Mid West Radio with over 26% of their audience tuning away…… that’s almost a third of their listeners…. GONE!!!

But it gets worse…. South East Radio have lost almost 40% of their listenership in five years! Clare FM have lost over 35% and Midlands Radio 3 and CKR over a third of theirs.

On a positive note, Radio Kerry is up slightly with a 6% increase since this time five years ago and North West Radio with a 7% increase. Shannonside and LMFM are holding their own with slight increases but the only major increase in five years comes from East Coast Radio with a 20% increase over the same period.

This is the cold reality of the JNLR figures and these can be verified on the BCI website at http://www.bci.ie/jnlr.htm - July 2001 - June 2002

Is it any wonder that most stations don’t mention the Market Share figures and publicise instead the Listened Yesterday figures as these catch everyone that tuned in, no matter for how short a period.

[Eric]

Good post Billy, however in 1997 there was no Today FM who now have 18% listenership and 11% market share outside Dublin.
The totals for the independents as a whole are the same on listenership and only down 2% on market share.
The cake is the same size - it's just that more stations are getting a slice!

I feel the gain for RTE over the indenendents this time round could be due Sept 11. As always people will turn to RTE when a big story breaks.(same happened after the Gulf war). 98 and Lite felt the pinch with huge gains for Morning Ireland.

Oh.. and the general election was also a factor (remember it had been 5 years since the last one)

[Billy]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Eric
[B]Good post Billy, however in 1997 there was no Today FM who now have 18% listenership and 11% market share outside Dublin....

I agree Eric. However, Today FM also broadcasts to Kerry and Wicklow??

[Dogger]

Don't forget the phenomenon known in the US as "audience fatigue", whereby audiences flock to new stations to try them out and stay if they like what they hear. However, the downside is that eventually (it could be weeks, months or years) a proportion of that audience gets weary and seeks pastures anew. It's no surprise to anyone with a bit of analytical expertise that figures for many locals have been dropping steadily over the past couple of years... the only surprise is it took so long. Locals are seeing their audiences level out now after years of ups and downs, the latest JNLR only shows that the radio industry is mature here now.


*ducks, waiting for the flamers to arrive*

[Eric]

Don't know what the story is in the Kingdom, however in Wicklow, East Coast have been rewarded for getting their act together over the past number of years.

BTW can anyone explain how East Coast's market share is higher than listenership!
It’s the only station in the country where this phenomenon occurs.

I know it’s because people are listening longer - perhaps it’s something to do with the weekend figures, which are due out next week.
Could it mean LESS people are listening for longer periods, and if so, what’s the magic formula?

[tommy milfigger]

market share refects the average number of people listening in a 1/4 hour,for eastcoast its 8,479 which is 36% of the number of people listening to the radio at that given time.
Whereas listenership is the number of people who listen in the whole day ie. the percentage of the population in wicklow that listen to the station in the whole day which is 29% thats appox 26,600 people.

[Eric]

If 36% is the average number of people who listened in a ¼ hour – how can only 29% have tuned in at ANY time yesterday? (Which is how they work out the listened yesterday figure)

My point is, that it’s very strange to have a higher market share figure, than a listened yesterday total.

[tommy milfigger]

in the whole county on an average 1/4 hour only 23,500 people are listening to the radio, east coast have 36% of that chunk(8,479)
In a whole day 92,000 people listen to radio in wicklow of which 29% listen to east coast

[Mike]

The figure that im interested in is the 88% total reach. This effectively means that 12% of people cant find anything even remotely of interest on any JNLR participating station. (Theres probably many more who are dissatisfied but who listen anyway because theres no real alternative)

By International and historical standards is 88% REALLY an "extremely high " leval of total reach ?

[Billy]

:confused:

Does anybody understand these bloody surveys?

My understanding is as follows:

Let's say there were 100,000 people listening to radio in the county yesterday between 7am and 7pm. That's 720 minutes of listening by 100,000 people, a total of 72 million minutes.

Radio 1 had 21,600,000 minutes of that.... ie, 30% market share etc.

On the other hand, 70,000 of those listeners tuned in to Morning Ireland, with most tuning away for the remainder of the day. This still gives Radio 1 a 70% Listened yesterday figure which shows that the "Market Share" figure is the real figure... go figure!!!

Anyway... I'm off for a pint to clear me head!!

[KittyKat]

good thinkin Billy.Sometimes I find it all a bit baffling as to what figures actually matter...you're bang on. it's a case of simple maths and stats i suppose, but plenty of stations like to blind the punters with science, so they wont see the 'real' figures...

Enjoy your pint,
KittyK..:cool:

[Turiel]

Originally posted by Mike
The figure that im interested in is the 88% total reach. This effectively means that 12% of people cant find anything even remotely of interest on any JNLR participating station. (Theres probably many more who are dissatisfied but who listen anyway because theres no real alternative)


What I want to know, is that 12% listening to pirate radio or to nothing at all? Are people put into a category if they say they listen to a pirate station? Or are their responses just disregarded?

[Mike]

Along with RnaG, UK overspill, 252 (when it was on), Community Radio, Hospital radio etc the main reason why pirates are not given in the JNLR's are because theyre not contributing to the cost of the survey and therfore shouldnt be benefiting by knowing how well (or otherwise) theyre doing in it.

Ive heard claims that the participating stations are given details (not for public consumption) of listenership for non JNLR stations. There could well be some truth in this as In some areas stations would probably be interested in knowing how much competition they were experiencing from which stations.